Wheat market fundamentals should buoy prices for the medium term

(Paige Holmquist/RealAgriculture)

The wheat market isn’t usually the exciting one to watch, but as Ranulf Granville, chief market analyst with Grainfox, says over the last six to eight weeks there’s a lot of company that has started to gather on the bullish side making for some excitement.

But is wheat really in that much better a fundamental position than corn?

“I think the short answer is yes,” Glanville says, as ending stocks of the major exporting nations combined with projected output for the year suggests some tightening of supplies.

“It looks like some of the crops, particularly in Russia, which has been a real engine of exports onto the world market, over the past couple of years, it looks like that engine is slowing down,” he says, adding that Russia probably has about 10 million tonnes less wheat to export than the market thought they were going to have three or four months ago.

How does that work its way into the market here in North America? Glanville recaps the three futures markets — Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City — and how each is unique in fundamentals and who or what is driving price moves. U.S. and Western Canadian weather can have a significant impact on some of these futures, so watching crop conditions as the season unfolds will once again be key.

Listen to the full analysis below, and catch a brief canola market synopsis around the 11 minute mark:

Related: Excellent U.S. corn crop potential weighs on market prices

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