USDA publishes bullish outlook for wheat

(Kara Oosterhuis/RealAgriculture)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday.

Wheat futures rose between 10 and 30 cents following the report, with the global wheat outlook for 2023/24 featuring lower supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks compared with 2022/23. Global production is forecast at a record of 789.8 MMT, which is up 1.5 million.

Larger crops in Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India are partly offset by sizeable declines in Australia , Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The largest increase is in Argentina, where production is expected to recover from a significant drought. Ukraine production is forecast to undergo a sharp decline of 21 per cent year-over-year, mostly due to the war with Russia.

In the U.S., wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks, and only slightly larger production. All wheat production is projected at 1.659 MMT, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area.

The global corn outlook for 2023/24 is for record production and use, and larger ending stocks. World corn production is forecast record high, with the largest increases in the United States, Argentina, the EU, China, and Serbia offsetting smaller crops in Ukraine and Brazil.

World corn use is expected to rise about four per cent, with foreign consumption increasing by a similar amount. With lower prices, world corn imports are forecast to grow just over five per cent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Mexico, and Colombia.

U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23.

Global corn ending stocks are up 15.5 million tons to 312.9 million, mostly reflecting larger stocks for the United States that are partly offset by declines for Brazil and China.

The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels in the U.S., up five per cent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. Crush for 202/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the 2022/23 forecast on favourable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion.

The global oilseed outlook for the year shows higher production, crush, and ending stocks compared with last marketing year. Global production is rising 43.8 million tons to 671.2 million mainly on higher soybean production for South America and the United States, higher sunflower seed for the EU, and higher rapeseed for the EU and Canada. This partly offsets a lower rapeseed production for Australia.

Global 2023/24 oilseed crush is growing 20.7 million tons to 542.5 million, with most of the growth in soybean crush for Argentina, China, Brazil, and the United States.

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