It’s the first day of winter, and perhaps the beginning of a few weeks of quiet, rest, and reflection before a new year, and the slow speed up to another spring. The grain markets show no sign of slowing down however, and that’s got some wondering how much steam some of these markets have, and what’s up with new crop prices?
To dig in to that, occasional RealAg LIVE! host Kara Oosterhuis is joined by Neil Townsend, with FarmLink Marketing Solutions for this chat.
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- As Dickens wrote, it was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
- COVID-19 fatigue
- And UK/Brexit
- Protests in India — any impact?
- PM waded into the protests, and that’s not usually a great thing…to wade into
- India’s policies are for India (and don’t take Canada into account). Income security and food security, broadly speaking. Sometimes in parallel, sometimes in opposition
- 2021 production is going to be very critical for ending stocks, and easing some of the concerns
- Food security was a huge talking point this year
- Moving locally: soybean and canola markets.
- The derecho in August bit into soybean yields and started to grind that number down
- Will the strong markets continue?
- The supply story for soybeans will ease if the South American crop really kicks in, but for canola we really don’t see more canola until August ’21
- There could still be upside to canola before killing the demand. Whoosh.
- Agronomic/rotation considerations of corn ground into corn? It takes some serious pull to get some corn acres into soybean.
- Protein markets are strong, ethanol isn’t going anywhere — corn demand should remain strong
- Humans (and maybe huge governments) are far less good at planning as we give anyone credit for. The opposite of conspiracy theorist.
- Are increased tariffs a part of a larger bullish market?
- U.S. policy is inclined towards a lower U.S. dollar in 2021
- Lower dollar, generally means higher prices
- Domestically: chickpeas hasn’t delivered the big promise regardless of the popularity of hummus
- Container traffic is not great, but it’s easing somewhat
- Barley is securing incremental acreage right now
- Red lentils — and maybe all crops — your first 30 per cent of crop, lock in that ROI at a good price (reasonable prices, not loftiest ones)
- Rotation is your best risk management tool. Well, well, well